It’s time for Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. While we won’t see any Canadians playing in Super Bowl LX this year, it should be one heck of a Big Game.
The Super Bowl odds are on the Seahawks’ side as 4.5-point favourites, and they’re -225 to win outright.
With that in mind, below is my pick against the spread, total, and two prop bets.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots’ offence hasn’t done much this post-season, scoring just 10 points in the AFC championship game, but the team is underestimated here.
Their defence has posted 69 pressures this post-season, the most of any team.
When under duress this year (including the post-season), Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold completed 51.5 per cent of his passes for 1,027 yards (6.3 yards per attempt) and has 10 turnover-worthy plays.
Meanwhile, their defence will contend with Patriots QB Drake Maye, who has just one turnover-worthy play on passes 20-plus yards downfield, along with 1,183 passing yards (second among all QBs on such passes) and 11 touchdown passes.
A deep shot for a touchdown could very well be the difference in this game, and Maye has delivered plays like that all season.
PREDICTION: Patriots +4.5 (-105)
Over/Under
For the over/under, I’m taking the under.
The Patriots' defence has been firing on all cylinders, pressuring opposing QBs at a high rate. Not only that, but they have a great cornerback in Christian Gonzalez, who should be able to slow down Jaxon Smith-Njigba enough to prevent him from having a massive game.
Furthermore, New England allows only 71.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (31st).
Moving over to the Maye-led offence, they’ve not scored much this post-season (18 points per game). Now, they’re taking on one of the best defences in the NFL. Seattle primarily plays Cover-3 and Cover-6. Including the playoffs, Maye has thrown six of his 35 touchdowns against those coverages.
I predict New England wins in a nail-biter, 20-17.
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 45.5 (-110)
Prop bets
PREDICTION: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+240)
While the Seahawks have only allowed six touchdowns to the tight end position, they’ve allowed production in other ways. On a per-game basis, they’ve surrendered approximately six receptions (sixth) for 64 yards (fifth) to the position.
Against the coverages Seattle runs most often, he leads the team in target share at 21 percent, catching 31 of 42 passes for 450 yards and two touchdowns.
PREDICTION: Kenneth Walker III 25+ Receiving Yards (+100)
During this post-season without Zach Charbonnet — he’s out for the season with a torn ACL — Walker III is third on the team in target share at 14.6 per cent, catching seven passes for 78 yards.
He’s had 29 receiving yards or more in each playoff game and faces a defence that surrenders more than 29 receiving yards per game to running backs (18th).
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